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Prediction for CME (2022-01-23T10:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-01-23T10:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18947/-1
CME Note: Initially visible in the NW of STEREO A COR2, later (2022-01-23T14:30Z) visible in NE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Associated with a narrow filament eruption centered near N25E35, visible in SDO AIA 171/304 and STEREO A EUVI 304 beginning around 2022-01-23T08:00Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-01-26T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18949/1
Model Inputs:
2022-01-23T10:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-22.0, Lat.=6.0, Speed=661.0, HalfAngle=10.0, Time21.5=2022-01-23T15:08Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-01-26T18:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-01-26T06:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-01-26T13:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_150800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_150800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_150800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_150800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_150800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_150800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_150800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_150800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_150800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_150800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_150800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_150800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_150800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_150800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_150800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220123_150800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 73.80 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2022-01-23T16:12Z

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